🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.